China’s population has experienced a consistent decline for the third consecutive year as of 2024, highlighting the ongoing demographic challenges facing this East Asian superpower. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the country’s population decreased by approximately 1.39 million in the past year, bringing the total to approximately 1.408 billion. This decline reflects a broader trend where deaths now consistently outnumber births, a phenomenon that has become increasingly pronounced since the 1980s.
Historically, the first instance of such a reversal occurred in 2022, marking the first time since 1961—a year marked by the devastating consequences of the Great Leap Forward—that China experienced this demographic shift. The long-term implications of a declining birthrate are significant, as they pose economic concerns alongside societal challenges.
In light of these demographic developments, the NBS has acknowledged a variety of factors contributing to the decline, including unfavorable external conditions, insufficient domestic demand, and production difficulties among businesses, all of which collectively create hurdles for the economy.
To counteract this trend, the Chinese government has implemented a range of policies. Efforts have included promoting larger family sizes through financial incentives for childcare and pursuing social strategies to encourage higher birth rates. In an attempt to shift cultural perceptions, authorities have labeled single women as “leftovers,” while simultaneously making divorce and abortion less accessible. These strategies have seen a slight increase in marriages, which rose by 12.4 percent in 2023, coinciding with the post-COVID-19 recovery period.
Despite a brief upturn in birth rates during the auspicious Year of the Dragon in 2024, experts caution that the overall trajectory remains downward. The formal abolition of the “one-child policy” in 2016 has allowed families to have up to three children, yet rising living costs in urban areas, coupled with a slow-growing economy and elevated youth unemployment rates, deter many young couples from expanding their families.
While China’s economy demonstrated a growth rate of 5 percent in 2024—aligning with governmental predictions—forecasts suggest that this GDP growth may slow in future years. In response to the demographic crisis, the government is also considering measures to gradually increase the retirement age, thereby potentially alleviating some economic pressures.
It is noteworthy that China is not alone in facing such demographic challenges; other East Asian nations like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are experiencing similar trends, largely due to comparable socio-economic factors and restrictions on immigration.
The ongoing demographic shifts in China serve as an important indicator of the transformation in East Asia, reflecting broader societal changes that will likely influence the region’s future socio-economic landscape.
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