Southeast Asian leaders will convene in Manila from November 15 to 17 for the ASEAN summit, amid ongoing energy shortages exacerbated by the US-Israel war on Iran. The summit will include US President Donald Trump and other global leaders, focusing on pressing issues like energy supply disruptions and regional trade tensions.
ASEAN Summit Addresses Energy Crisis and Trade Issues
The 11-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which includes countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, is facing significant challenges due to oil and gas supply shortages linked to the conflict in the Middle East. The Philippines has declared a state of national energy emergency due to these disruptions. Millions of ASEAN citizens working in the Middle East are also at risk as the conflict threatens their safety and livelihoods.
In addition to energy concerns, the summit will address disputes over the South China Sea and ongoing trade tensions, particularly those stemming from the US-China rivalry. Since the onset of Trump’s second term, ASEAN countries have experienced tariff increases of 10-12.5 percent, prompting a reevaluation of their trade relationships.
Key Attendees and Their Roles
Notable attendees at the summit include:
- US President Donald Trump: Expected to hold a special summit with ASEAN leaders and a one-on-one meeting with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. before attending the APEC meeting in China.
- India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi: A key trading partner for ASEAN, though India is not a member.
- Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney: Scheduled to deliver a speech during the summit.
- Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva: His visit marks the first by a sitting Brazilian president to the Philippines, focusing on trade and defense cooperation.
- Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov: Attending following the Russia-ASEAN summit held in July.
Background on ASEAN and Regional Tensions
ASEAN aims to create a single market among its members, which include nearly 694 million people, or 8.4 percent of the global population. The organization cannot impose decisions on its members but facilitates cooperation on various issues. The South China Sea remains a contentious area, with ongoing territorial disputes involving China and several ASEAN nations. Negotiations for a “code of conduct” with China have stalled, although recent talks have aimed to expedite the process.
Additionally, the civil war in Myanmar and its humanitarian repercussions continue to be a significant concern for ASEAN, as the bloc seeks to restore democracy in the country. The Rohingya refugee crisis has further complicated the situation, leading to restrictions on Myanmar’s participation in ASEAN meetings.
As the summit approaches, the region remains on edge regarding the potential spillover effects of the US-Israel conflict into critical waterways, particularly the Strait of Malacca.